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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.48-4.8%Dec 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (6722)11/5/2002 2:49:31 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh  Read Replies (2) of 95579
 
Gottfried, I think that the next jump in chip volume will not come from new uses for chips as much as it will come from more users of current applications. I am a bit of a curmudgeon and don't represent the majority view but most of the gee-whiz devices such as cellphones with pictures and fridges that call the grocery store will not see major acceptance.

However, when you look at the growing industrial clout of China they are getting close to a critical mass of consumers that will be demanding "stuff". Add India to the picture and you have hundreds of millions of people that will buy products containing chips if they can be produced cheaply enough.

How soon this will happen, I sure don't know.

FWIW I updated my AMAT projection today with a high and a low scenario for 2004.

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