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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 298.01

-0.5%

Dec 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alastair McIntosh who wrote (6725)	11/5/2002 7:20:34 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) of 95580

RE: "...cellphones with pictures and fridges that call the grocery store..." I hope you don't view these 2 examples as comparable. Forget fridges and think about cellphones. A basic assumption you have made in your semi analysis is that consumption is inelastic, that lower prices and more capability will not bring increased volumes and increased revenue. I believe that "cellphones with pictures" will evolve into full motion audio/video at a low price point. Consumers will buy new generations of cellphones as the "pictures" evolve. They will also sign up for higher speed wireless services which will use advanced chips. Cellphone people will be able to videoconference with laptops with "pictures". Two camera split screen and multi-windows will show the speaker and another view of his/her location. The phrase, "have you ever been to..." will change to "have you ever REALLY been to..." I will get my cellphone to see what winter in Alaska is like for Jacob and his family while I am sitting on a California beach.

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