As I told you, the Mideast standoff basically boils down to a corrida of sorts.... (*)
Analysis / Sharon's gov't goes, Arafat stays
U.S. to keep close eye on Sharon.
By Aluf Benn
Yasser Arafat now leads in the race between him and Ariel Sharon to survive politically. Isolated and scarred, Arafat's in his chair at the Muqata, without reforms, waiting for after the Israeli elections and the war in Iraq. He wanted to hold elections in January for the Palestinian Authority; now he'll watch the Israelis fight it out at the polls.
As in the past, the Palestinians will be able to decide the elections. A new wave of terror will help the right. If they restrain the terrorism, it will help the left. But the entire political process between Israel and the Palestinians now goes into a deep freeze until a new government is formed sometime in February or even March.
The U.S. administration, which has been focused on "maintenance" of the conflict, will now be paying close attention to Sharon's right wing government, with its two new ministers, Benjamin Netanyahu and Shaul Mofaz. Next week, envoy David Satterfield arrives from the State Department and at the end of next week, a senior Israeli delegation headed by Minister Dan Meridor and National Security Council chief Ephraim Halevy go to Washington for "strategic dialogue."
A government source said one of the reasons for the frequent pace of the meetings is the American administration's desire to back up its Tel Aviv embassy. During his last visit to Washington, Sharon complained that Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer leaked a vehement American message to Sharon about Israel's behavior in the territories. The Prime Minister's Office was angry that the ambassador passed the message to Shimon Peres and Benjamin Ben-Eliezer.
Political sources in Jerusalem said the administration will raise two issues in the coming weeks: concern about the humanitarian conditions in the territories; and the settlements. The Americans want to warn the right wing government's leaders that they should not try expanding the settlement enterprise after Labor's departure from the government, for internal Likud reasons.
Sharon reiterated yesterday that the government's policy would remain the same as it was despite the breakup of the unity government. He said he will stick to his understandings with the administration and indeed, will base his campaign for reelection on those.
haaretzdaily.com
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