Quick Market update:
Hello all..Well as stated yesterday, I didn't feel there had been enough evidence to suggest a lasting top through either the proposed exhaustion gap or technical r & s / market indicators.
Resistance above : 1420, 1425, 1450, 1474, 1487, 1500, 1522, 1554
Support below: 1378, 1371, 1348, 1327, 1289.
Today we have both the FOMC meeting and CSCO; the question is do we rally into the meeting and sell the news? Or do we rally into the meeting and buy the news giving us a true catalyst to call for an exhaustion top.
The charts to me still imply more upside and even though several of my indicators are now pegging extreme OB - upside is still favored. I propose that we find a top between 1450 and 1487 (overshoot max 1500)....From there we should distribute for between 12 - 18 hours and lock in a lasting multi-week high.
The Ideal scenario to give me confidence that a true Top was in place would be this:... A strong rally into the close of trading, let's say between 50-100 points AND THEN ON THE CSCO NEWS AFTER MARKET - SIGNS OF IRRATIONAL EXCUBERANCE - i.e tech stocks jumping a few Points after the close. Futures Ramp etc etc.......That should seal the lid nicely as the shorts panic cover on CSCO'S "good news"..... That sets us up nicely for a monster Gap and Crap tomo - which should seal a lasting high...... (remember this is an ideal scenario!!) |
