Go back to my first post. It's a high risk investment, with no guarantee's that they will find commericial oil. It could be more or it could be less. Keith chose to place that value, but he did it on a very high risk basis. As he caution, they could find less. He also, and this is a important question for you to ask, didn't know what the reduction of that 70% will be according to the PSA. He for now based his recommendation on 70% of 1bil of oil, on the info that the company gave him. He also strongly caution about the high risk. If you look at the major oil companies earnings report, they saw declines in the production side, but earnings improved on downstream operations and continue cost cutting.
I don't sumise what the stock will be in 12 month's. It could be 30, it could be 0, depending on what drilling program is and it's cost, what drillling shows, the amount they trade off for bringing in a partner like RD, TX or OXY, the amount of money they get from them for that and what the PSA indicates. As of right now, those are all unanswered questions. You chose to look at the glass as half full, for now I look at it half empty.
I bought this stock, before split adjustment, at $15 and still have 100 shares, based on a country that has potential for large fields, Colombia. Based on your price I'm still negative on my original investment which was made based on knowing the inherent risk associated with wildcat ops, albeit in a country that is known to be prolific, but so was Indonesia. I lost and my post aren't sourgrapes about it, although you'll probably choose to view it as such.
You are the one that choose to accuse me of something I have not engaged in and accuse me of things I'm not doing. That I don't appreciate. |
