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Gold/Mining/Energy : MPVIF Mountain Province Mining
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To: GeoDude who wrote (2363)11/6/2002 7:20:51 PM
From: GeoDude  Read Replies (1) of 2577
 
To MPV fans:

this is what I wrote on Sept 2:

"3) I have reviewed past data from Hearne. Hearne has a higher grade than 5034 but the grade is concentrated in the small stuff. Only about 13% of the carats are in >0.5 ct diamonds. This is OK because there are more ct per tons and thus the grade at a cutoff of 0.5 ct (where the value is) is similar between Hearne and 5034. The interesting part is that the distribution of large stones is also very similar (possibly just a little worse). We have not seen > 5ct stones yet because the sample size has been too small (largest sample 599t) but we have seen numerous 2-5ct stones. This next sample (684t)may be large enough to get some 5+ct stones but in any case will prove that the 5034 distribution applies and should add to the valuation of Hearne. My guess for the results is: 120 stones from 0.5 to 1ct, 40 stones from 1-2 ct, 13 stones from 2 to 5 and maybe 1 > 5ct. The key number for valuation will be the 13 stones > 2ct."

Amazingly enough we got at least as good as what I expected based on past statistics and probably 10-20% better. Great news for foward valuation model and for confirming that Hearne is an economic pipe.

Not sure where we go from here but I see little to no downside. Stock is worth 2-3 times current levels in the next 6-12 months.

Enjoy.

LIA
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