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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (9414)	11/6/2002 11:57:07 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) of 9719

Scott... a few warnings: * The corperate profit plunge in the US is the worst since the 30's.... so far. * The leverage of corperate balance sheets has never been higher [maybe the 30's at some point, I dont' know]. * The indebtedness of the US Govt. has never been higher. * Consumer debt... well, you know. * Foreign exposure to $US is STAGERING! So?? The true growth engine of the US economy has been debt for years, profits topped out in '97, the scale has reached amazing proportions: net savings of consumers AND business was 3% of GDP in 2001, this compares to credit growth of 20%! It goes without saying that this is over... the last spurt has been refinancing of homes over the past couple years, probably kept the econonmy out of the 30's. IMO that's all over now, there is no more engine... just a pile of debt to be burned or paid. Investment won't rebound till one of those 2 things happens. The worst is NOT over, and 1/2 point is meaningless when corperate America is borrowing at junk rates anyway. Keep an eye on the dollar... all hell is going to break loose IMO. DAK

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