SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Eric L who wrote (52914)11/7/2002 1:28:55 AM
From: Clarksterh  Read Replies (4) of 54805
 
Eric - Lies, damn lies and statistics. Quoting the way you do the percent market share definitely falls into the last category. You'll actually find this trick in books on how to manipulate statistics to say whatever you want. I'll admit it is a little complex, but:

1) Anytime you have a group growing rapidly, and that group is divided up into a very small but rapidly growing subgroup (call it X) and another, very large but modestly growing subgroup (Y) you can get a situation where the 'market share' of the smaller group could be falling. (i.e. whenever %GrowthX/%GrowthY<SizeY/SizeX) Given that historical evidence says that percentage growths are much more constant than size this loss in market share is misleading. (At some point the ever shrinking SizeY/SizeX becomes smaller than the much more constant ratio GrowthX/GrowthY - at that point you get a 'minimum' market share. See point number 2) Essentially by the way you quoted data you were missing positive acceleration in market share.

2) You talk of QCDMA's loss of market share in digital. But that is only because you conveniently picked your endpoints. Using your own data it is apparent that more recently QCDMA has been gaining market share. Essentially they just passed through their minimum as described in number 1.

3) Given the above it becomes obvious that almost all overtaking technologies in a growth field go through a sideways s shaped market share curve. Sometimes with more than one dip, but always catching up.

As for the value chain, several comments:

a) You have conveniently left off the Samsungs of the world

b) For the data you provided you are really comparing the network providers (lousy margins) with the handset providers (ok margins) but as pointed out in a) you didn't include the QCDMA handset providers.

c) There is nothing that says that the rest of a Gorilla's value chain has to be making a killing. Certainly not true of Microsoft which is indisputably a Gorilla - ask any box provider but Dell.

Clark
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News