Despite Taiwan's Renewed Fears, China Not a Threat Right Now
Nov 06, 2002
stratfor.biz
Summary
Taiwan is showing heightened concern about Chinese intentions, likely in part due to the current U.S. preoccupation with Iraq. Washington needs Beijing's cooperation in the United Nations, and the Taiwanese government, faced with economic troubles at home, sees itself being left out in the cold. But despite Taipei's concerns, Beijing has little interest in or ability to move against Taiwan in the near future.
Analysis
Over the past week, Taiwan has stepped up its warning of the "China threat" by drawing attention to Chinese naval maneuvers and to Chinese ballistic missiles deployed across the Taiwan Strait. The heightened alert is a reflection of the political debate within Taiwan over defense budgets and relations with mainland China, as well as a growing feeling of isolation as Washington -- Taipei's guarantor regarding Beijing -- focuses on Iraq.
But the Chinese government has remained rather placid in the face of Taiwan's recent rhetoric, offering direct flights across the Taiwan Strait and touting the economic ties between the two sides. Beijing is too busy finalizing China's long-anticipated leadership change and has little interest in stirring up tensions at such a politically sensitive time, particularly as Washington is keeping its distance to ensure China's cooperation in the United Nations for action against Iraq.
Since the Oct. 25 summit meeting between Chinese President Jiang Zemin and U.S. President George W. Bush, Taipei has been awash in debate over the status of trilateral relations. Although the Bush-Jiang summit covered little new ground, the Taiwanese government viewed it as another in a series of Washington's moves to cozy up to Beijing.
Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian has warned that China still poses a serious threat to his country and suggested the U.S.-Taiwan relationship should be closer to a "semi-alliance." But Chen has not been alone in warning about China.
Taiwanese Prime Minister Yu Shyi-kun recently attended a rally to draw attention to China's alleged placement of 400 ballistic missiles across the Taiwan Strait. And Yih Jung-tzung, information division director of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York, wrote a letter to the editor of New York's Newsday calling China's missiles and its ongoing military buildup "tantamount to state-sponsored terrorism directed at Taiwan."
The warnings about China's missiles have been matched by a focus on its navy. Taipei claims to have chased the Chinese research vessel Xiangyanghong 14 out of the territorial waters around Lanyu, or Orchid Island, on April 15, Oct. 10 and Nov. 3. Taipei also said the ship was spotted off of Chiupeng in May during a Taiwanese test of an indigenous missile system.
But more troubling for Taipei was a revelation by its Ministry of National Defense that a Chinese-guided missile destroyer, while traveling from Qindao to Hainan for naval exercises, passed within 180 nautical miles of Taiwan's east coast in mid-October. This marked a change in the typical path for Chinese vessels, which normally pass through the Taiwan Strait, and could represent shifting tactics and capabilities for China's formerly coast-bound navy.
Taipei also claims China is beefing up its navy; a leak to the United Daily News alleged that China plans to purchase Russian nuclear and conventional submarines as well as cruisers fitted with advanced anti-ship missiles. Taiwanese Vice President Annette Lu has called for the strengthening of Taiwan's own sea power to allow the island to defend the Taiwan Strait and its territorial waters.
And Taiwan's military is acting on this call. The government has managed to press initial budgetary approval through a parliamentary committee for the controversial purchase of four U.S. Kidd-class destroyers. The Ministry of National Defense also is calling for the replacement of the navy's six Knox-class frigates, and the country's marines have announced the purchase of 54 AAVP7-A1 amphibious assault vehicles.
Yet while Chen, Lu and much of the rest of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party support a series of massive new military purchases, there is continued pressure from opposition parties to forego expensive but outdated weapons systems and instead focus on economic recovery and future purchases of more modern equipment. And the Defense Ministry's warnings about the Chinese navy are being derided as a scare tactic designed to help pass bigger defense budgets.
This brings us to the heart of the debate inside Taiwan: the status of the economy and how it is related to mainland China. Other nations' businesses are leaping into the Chinese market and tapping its vast cheap-labor resources. This is why factions within the opposition and business community are calling increasingly for better economic and social ties with China, as they see such links as the only way to salvage Taiwan's failing economy and reclaim a competitive edge. But the DPP, a traditionally pro-independence party, continues to hold back out of concern that it will lose control of Taiwan's future.
A recent poll commissioned by Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council reported that 70 percent of Taiwanese citizens want direct transportation links to the mainland. Such polls and the business sentiment in Taiwan are being exploited by Beijing, which has softened its formerly threatening tone. Instead, Beijing's new strategy is to play up economic and social cooperation and to emphasize the growing ties between the two sides.
According to the official People's Daily, trade across the Taiwan Strait hit $32 billion for the first nine months of 2002, and is expected to reach $40 billion by the end of the year -- up more than $7 billion from 2001. And China reports Taiwanese investments in the mainland reached $2.83 billion through September, already almost reaching the $3 billion total seen in 2001.
These numbers actually might be low, given the amount of trade and investment that flows via Hong Kong as well, but for Beijing they serve the purpose of clearly demonstrating the tightening economic links across the Taiwan Strait.
But those in Taiwan who fear that Beijing somehow will hold the island economically hostage do not recognize fully that China also is dependent upon Taiwan's investments and trade. By most accounts, Taiwanese firms invest nearly as much if not more in China that do those in the United States. It could prove self-destructive if Beijing were to put the squeeze on these firms just to punish Taipei.
So for now, despite the rhetoric, both sides are unlikely to seriously shake up their economic ties or push their relations to the brink of conflict. Beijing has little interest -- much less ability -- to take advantage of Washington's focus on Iraq to launch a military takeover of Taiwan.
Rather, Beijing is exploiting Taiwan's internal economic problems by offering civilian economic ties -- thus tearing support away from Taipei's policies. And Taipei is blustering for attention, from both the opposition politicians and businesses and from the United States.
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