Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: MythMan who wrote (203166)	11/7/2002 1:31:21 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) of 436258

>>I don't consider that a real long. << somebody said that to me before ... you really know how to hurt a guy ... forbes.com >>Such as? One of the versions of it is called overconfidence: People assign much higher probability to the truth of their opinions than is warranted. It's one of the reasons people trade so much in the market, generally with bad results. [Another example is people] exaggerate their confidence in their plans--something we call the planning fallacy.... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence. <<

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