Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (3092)	7/23/1997 2:21:00 PM
From: J.T.	of 94695

Hi Bill, I am bearish, but don't feel comfortable with your free use of the word "tank". I'm suggesting correction of roughly 20% from 7900 Dow level and 900 S & P level areas. This translates into 6350 to 6400 level interday low and 730 area S & P. Once we get to these levels and rerally, only then will I be able to address the quality of that rally (ie A/D index, P/C ratio, how all indices are performing in relation to the rerally etc). As you know, from the very beginning I have said from 7900 Dow and S & P 900 that a potential throwover of upwards of 5% was possible (I said 2% to 5%) which translates to 8190 Dow and 945 S & P area. This level has not been pierced. Also, we are not significantly higher on these two levels since i first started posting. I also said after dialog with OJ that I said top was in across the board on a closing basis but a 1% to 2% throwover was possible. I still maintain my 8190 and 945 #'s and have never mentioned specific NAZ #'s. And, I reserve the right to be wrong. I can't tell yout what will happen this week (look at yesterdays action alone after Mr. G's testimony)and why. I can give you a pre-maket open comment, a mid-day comment and or closing comment (when time permits). But I have said all along that I think this market is ripe for an external event that provides nothing more than an excuse for the market to take a breather (correction) which could translate into even bigger problems down the road as things begin to unfold. Chain reactions tend to take on a personality of their own and can only be addressed after the unraveling has begun. You can call all this "noise" but it won't be noise when it happens. I don't have a crystal ball or tea leaf as to what it may be, but I could give you 5 to 10 scenarios as to what I might think could provide the impetus for this domino effect. I hope this helps and I'm sure you have more Q's in trying to pin me down on specifics. Just remember, just OMHO. Regards JT

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