Israel shows off anti-missile system in attempt to discourage any Iraqi attack
Thu Nov 7,12:58 PM ET
By GREG MYRE, Associated Press Writer
PALMACHIM AIR FORCE BASE, Israel - Israel's defense against a potential Iraqi missile attack was on full
display Thursday: Arrow anti-missile batteries were pointed skyward amid the sand and scrub brush,
confidently displayed to reporters as part of a public relations blitz aimed at discouraging Saddam Hussein
(news - web sites) from firing his Scuds.
Israel's Arrow system is the most advanced in the world currently deployed, and the air
force expresses full faith that it has closed a window of vulnerability that allowed Iraq to
rain 39 missiles on Israel during the 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites).
"I'm sure we are better prepared today," said Brig. Gen. Yair Dori, head of the military's
Air Defense Forces. "In 1991, we had almost nothing. Now we have a very active,
robust defense."
Israel and the United States have spent upward of US$2 billion to develop the Arrow,
first deployed two years ago at the Palmachim Air Force Base to protect nearby Tel
Aviv and surrounding areas.
A second battery has been deployed outside the northern coastal city of Hadera to
shield that part of the country. A third battery is being built.
Officials would not say how many actual Arrow missiles exist. Each costs about US$3 million.
For Israel, having the system is only part of the battle. The military also believes that advertising the Arrow will deter Saddam from striking if he comes under attack from the United States.
U.S. President George W. Bush (news - web sites) has said the United States is prepared to invade Iraq if
Saddam does not allow United Nations (news - web sites) weapons inspectors to dismantle any weapons of mass destruction that Iraq may posses.
Israel on Thursday brought a bus load of journalists for briefings and a view of the four dun-colored missile
launchers, each loaded with six Arrow missiles, air force officials said. The launchers are set about 100 yards
(meters) apart from each other in the otherwise empty flatlands a short distance from the sea.
"I'm sure (Saddam's) motivation is to bring Israel into this conflict," Dori said as he stood next to a 25-foot tall
Arrow. "But I'm also sure that fewer missiles will fall into Israel."
In the Gulf War, the United States rushed Patriot missile defense batteries to Israel. But the Patriots, built as
an anti-aircraft system and modified to guard against incoming missiles, had little success against the Iraqi
Scuds.
A Patriot can only knock out an incoming missile near the end of its flight, when the unstable Scud missiles
started to break apart. On Israeli radar screens, the disintegrating missiles would appear as a clouds of
debris, making it impossible for Israeli air defense teams to determine which part was the warhead, Israeli
officials said.
In contrast, the Arrow is designed specifically to intercept an incoming missile at a high point.
Israel officers said it would be realistic for an Arrow to intercept an incoming Scud at least 50 kilometers (31 miles) above the ground and 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Arrow's launch site. That means the Arrow would in theory hit Scuds while they were still high over neighboring Jordan.
In the Gulf War, all the Iraqi missiles had conventional warheads — but the main fear now, as then, is the
possibility of a nonconventional attack, including biological and chemical war heads.
However, Martin van Creweld, a leading military historian, said Saddam was much less likely to fire missiles at Israel in a coming conflict.
Last time, the effort was intended to break up the U.S.-led coalition in 1991, but failed. No such alliance exists today, and Saddam, who was believed to have hundreds of Scud missiles during the Gulf War, now has a much smaller arsenal.
Van Creweld described the Arrow system as a significant technological advance, but sees it as extremely
expensive and wasteful for the level of threat Israel faces.
"If it were me, I would rely on the threat of retaliation," said van Creweld, an Israeli. "There is no defense
system that is 100 percent effective."
The Israeli air force believes it would now shoot down more than 90 percent of incoming missiles from Iraq,
but acknowledges it won't know the level of effectiveness unless there is real fire.
Officials have said eight of nine tests of the Arrow system were successful.
Iraq's Scud missiles must be fired from the country's far western desert to reach Israel, about 600 kilometers (370 miles) away. Despite this limited launch area, U.S. and British troops were unable to find and destroy a single Scud missile launcher during the 1991 war.
In the early stages of any new U.S. assault, American forces are expected to carry out an intensive search of western Iraq to track down missiles and launchers.
The Iraqi missiles can reach Israel in less than eight minutes. Last time around, the wildly inaccurate Scuds
were aimed at Tel Aviv and other densely populated cities and towns along Israel's Mediterranean coast.
They caused extensive damage and injures, but no deaths.
Saddam did not risk targeting Jerusalem, where the eastern part of the city has many Arab residents and
Muslim holy sites that could be struck inadvertently.
During the Gulf War, Israel relied on U.S. satellite information about Scud missile launches and often did not
get warnings until a missile was less than five minutes away.
U.S.-Israeli cooperation has been stepped up today, and Israel now has the Green Pine radar system, which should be able to pinpoint Iraqi missile launches. Israel hopes to have a minimum of five minutes to respond to any attack, and needs about two to three minutes to launch an Arrow that intercepts the incoming missile, according to air force officials.
Israel still has Patriot batteries that would be used as a second line of defense. Israel carried out two
successful tests of upgraded Patriots on Wednesday, air force officials said.
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