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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: areokat who wrote (52939)	11/7/2002 6:58:54 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) of 54805

Kat, << How does the Shosteck report fit into the discussion going on? My impression was they were positive in respect to their out look for Q. >> Well, to start with the paper was a follow up to a FUD piece sponsored and paid for by CDG in June 2001. That paper wasn't to successful in terms of a.) reality or b.) in accomplishing CDG's objective of swaying IS-136 TDMA carriers to choose a cdma migration path. a.) Contrary to the FUD Hersch & Jane intended to impart GSM-850 gear shipped and has been successfully installed as have dual-mode GSM-850/1900 phones (some with AMPS) and GAIT phones are shipping (although their has been some rework on those). b.) IS-136 TDMA carriers controlling ~70% of worldwide subs have already chosen the GSM migration path, while ~15% have chosen CDMA, leaving about ~15% uncommitted. When all is said and done it'll be a 80/20 or 75/25 split As for the current paper Hersch & Jane contend that there will be insufficient GSM-850 only phones in the early stages. I personally think that what they are missing is that the BOM of a GSM-850/1900 phone will be <2.5% more than a GSM-850 only phone and efficiencies of manufacturing the dual-mode make up for that in volume of the one size fits all model. This is pretty much the way 3GAmericas responded. In this case I personally feel Hersch & Jane are a bit damp, if not all wet. Not the first time I've felt that way about Hersch. he's unique, and I guess Jane is too. Best, - Eric -

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