Actually, Mish, a drop to 22.50 and a rise to 25 would be a .618 re-trace, and depending on how that formed, it could possibly rule out an impulse off the high, although I know e-wave about as much as any homeless person off the street.
However, what we're describing may be similar to what happened earlier this year in Feb-March.
Either way, I'm struck by the similarity between this current drop and how the drop in January started. Both began with a 3% drop, a re-trace of .382 (my target for tomorrow) and then another drop to a slightly lower low (maybe 1360 to fill the gap, in line with a similar drop the next day in January), then a 50% re-trace of the drop, and another drop into the Friday of expiration for Max Pain.
It's all wishful thinking, but it does help to think before trading. |
