Russia Seeks Regime Change To Prevent Iraq War
Nov 07, 2002
stratfor.biz
Informed Russian sources told Stratfor on Nov. 7 that Russian intelligence services are working in tandem with pro-Russian Iraqi generals to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, hoping to stave off a U.S. war. Moscow seeks to stage a coup before the end of November, in time to prevent a U.S. attack.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly does not aim to hijack a U.S. victory over Iraq, but rather fears that a war would have serious economic consequences for his country and would hurt its international standing. Sources say Putin likely has discussed the matter with U.S. President George W. Bush.
However, two problems would arise with a pre-emptive coup attempt.
First, the only Iraqi leaders powerful enough to oust Hussein are his own relatives -- though not his sons -- as these are the only generals trusted to come near the Iraqi leader. Bush likely would not agree to a new regime that keeps any Hussein family members in power; if the United States proceeds with its war effort, Russia's attempts to hatch a coup will have been for naught.
Second, Putin seeks to ensure that the Kremlin's efforts will be appreciated, and that the future regime in Baghdad will be equally pro-Russian and pro-U.S. So far, however, Putin's pro-Western strategy has yielded few dividends from Washington. For example, to secure the overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Moscow gathered and shared crucial intelligence with U.S. commanders, was influential in securing the cooperation of the Northern Alliance with U.S. forces and sent its own special forces to fight and die for the U.S. victory -- but Bush glossed over these contributions when he proclaimed victory in Afghanistan early this year. The Kremlin has no guarantees that Washington will safeguard Russia's interests in Iraq once Hussein is out of power.
Moreover, Putin fears that Bush would take an ill view of a Russian-organized coup, perceiving it as an attempt to steal a U.S. victory in Iraq. Sources say Bush's reaction to the plan is not known, but Putin appears undecided as to whether to sanction the risky coup attempt, even though it reportedly has been partly prepared already.
If Iraqi generals backed by Moscow do succeed in replacing Hussein with one of his relatives, that alone would not eliminate the likelihood of a U.S. attack. It could, however, delay military action and increase the chances for a peaceful resolution. Washington would demand Hussein's extradition, U.S. oversight of Iraq's disarmament and further changes in Baghdad -- including removing Hussein's relatives from power -- and Russia would push the new Iraqi regime to accept these conditions. |
