SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (203534)11/8/2002 1:51:35 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (4) of 436258
 
it is my opinion that Greenie will not be able to re-flate the economy. he has obviously failed to re-flate on the business side. and now the consumer side is starting to crack; credit is being withdrawn from the marginal borrower. Nextcard is gone. Metris is basically gone. Providian is really no longer in the sub-prime business. Conseco is gone. Americredit is pulling back. Capital One is pulling back. Sears got downgraded today. The only place where sub-prime credit is still being extended is real estate, but look at the Alt-A and sub-prime default numbers; they are simply off the charts so that trend ain't gonna last much longer.

This is just the first step in the food chain, just as the marginal internet start-up being denied new capital was the beginning of the corporate bust.

With most of our 'money' not really money at all but an 'asset' backed by specious liabilities (credit card receivables, car loans, home loans) i expect that the credit contraction has only just begun.

As far as commodities, i think they are going to keep going down in price. Please no flames from the inflationists in the crowd; we've gone over this enough before. IMO falling final demand will conspire with excess productive capacity to keep pushing prices (on a long-term secular basis) down.

That continues to be my opinion, and i am sticking to it. Frankly i think the only thing you want to own in such a scenario is short-term, liquid liabilities of the US government, which is why i am mostly out of my ten-years now. i am agnostic on gold.

Cheers
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News