I read all 88 pages of Silver Insitute report, but I'm still analyzing and developing comments to make here.
The demand drop from 936.3moz in 2000 to 880.3moz in 2001 can almost be completely explained by the 44moz drop in fabrication demand. It's the weak economy that hurt silver, so I agree that the "future prospects of silver are highly dependent on the strength of the economic recovery"
The photography numbers caught my eye, not because of the amount, but the minor trend - 1999=225.9 2000=219.5 2001=210.2 It is not much of a drop and it may take another decade before digital cameras affect photographic silver demand, but I would make the postal/e-mail comparison. E-mail has not put the post office out of business, but postal mail volumes has remained flat for years, while all of the growth has been in email. Standard photography may
remain flat, with all new growth in digital.
As previously mentioned, the 40moz+ annual potential of Barrick was about twice what I expected, and clearly puts Barrick in the postion to challenge Penoles (53moz estimated for 2002) as the world's largest silver producer. We better hope silver lease rates and prices do not get too high, otherwise Barrick might start seriously hedging silver. They may have resources close to 1 billion ounces ?? |
