Iraq Resolution: China's Shifting Policy
Nov 08, 2002
stratfor.biz
Summary
The U.N. Security Council on Nov. 8 unanimously approved a new resolution on Iraq. China, which currently holds the rotating chair of the Security Council, played a strong negotiating role in the final days before the vote, a shift for a nation that traditionally has shied away from such forward action. China’s actions reveal its tactical near-term interests and its broader strategic goals.
Analysis
The U.N. Security Council on Nov. 8 unanimously approved a long-awaited U.S.- and U.K-sponsored resolution on Iraq, paving the way for the resumption of arms inspections and increasing the potential for U.S. or international military action in Iraq. Interestingly, China -- which had taken over the rotating chairmanship of the Security Council ahead of the vote -- played an important part in the final days of debate and negotiations.
Despite Beijing's normal backseat role in international affairs, and its historical reticence about possible U.S. military actions in strategically important regions, Chinese officials were among the least vocal opponents of the U.S.-British draft resolutions in the United Nations. After Washington offered its third draft, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan told a news conference Nov. 7 that "China will play a positive and constructive role and push for further consultations over the U.N. Security Council draft."
Indeed, a day earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan held separate telephone consultations with U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin. And Beijing made it a point to play up these talks in its state-run media.
In fact, as China's official media outlets were filled in recent days with reports about the national Communist Party conference -- which will determine China's next generation of leaders -- frequent articles about China's role in the Security Council and the debate over the Iraq resolution continued to emerge. Beijing's self-proclaimed role as facilitator of the vote, underscored by its new role as chairman of the Security Council, is part of a broader shift in strategic policy.
Under President Jiang Zemin, China has emerged slowly as a regional and even global player, and Beijing envisions this role expanding in the future -- with the ultimate goal of establishing a true multilateral international system in which China is weighted equally against the United States.
But at the same time, Beijing is looking at tactical-level benefits, not the least of which is gaining a debt of gratitude from the current U.S. administration. In addition, Beijing might be hoping to constrain Washington's options in the Middle East by keeping U.S. maneuverings within the framework of the United Nations, though Washington's commitment to the vagaries of the U.N. remains in doubt.
Even if Beijing cannot keep the United States out of Iraq, it still can benefit if Washington remains tied up in conflict in the Middle East. And China would have time to further develop its domestic economy and military strength while simultaneously positioning itself as a multilateralist power, exploiting international discontent with the United States to gain new and enhanced economic and political ties around the globe. |
