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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (15008)11/9/2002 1:02:18 AM
From: High-Tech East  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
<<The dollar kept making new lows as the market kept going lower throughout the second half of 1994. In fact, the dollar kept going lower and making new lows until the end of March early April 1995 - and lagged the great stock market melt-up during the rest of the 90's that commenced December 8th 1994 at DOW 3685 and by April 4, 1995 we hit DOW 4200.>>

That is correct.

In addition, the Dow continued to largely outperform the dollar from the Spring of 1995 through early 2000. Since then, the dollar has mostly outperformed the Dow, with the biggest exception being February through July of this year when the dollar swooned from 122.29 to 104.64.

Now the dollar is back to support at 104.68.

If the Dow continues to rally into the end of the year, and through the beginning of next summer in the melt-up you foresee, the dollar will probably lag the Dow again.

But because that course of events took place in 1994-1995 does not necessarily tell me that we are about to see another bull market that you believe started a few weeks ago.

The macro economic conditions that exist in the U.S. and world economies today are nothing like they were in 1995.

I really hope you are right with your bull forecast. We will all make larger profits investing in positive economic times. But I do not see it that way ... I see the downward trend continuing in the world and U.S. economies until at least the U.S. debt bubble is broken and healed and the value of the dollar hits maybe 80 cents again as in 1995.
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