Yes, I believe the statistics and I routinely have everything I own plus options and margin into NG related stocks. Since my wife and I are employed, we spend below our means, we have another 15-20 years before early retirement, and I keep six months cash out of my trading accounts I am not risking immediate dire straights if I bet wrong in NG cyclical stocks.
The immediate weather seems to becoming bearish, the market looks to have already priced in all the bullish news of the week.
The great unknown here is what happens to oil if Iraq is quickly conquered, the oil fields are not damaged and Iraq's capacity to export is maxed promptly at 2 mbpd. I am not sure what it is, but I suspect it would average 1.5mbpd more than what is has in the last year.
I suspect OPEC could cope with this, and Russia, Mexico and Norway would all be drawn together to support oil prices. But in the mean time I do not want to be max leveraged into NG related service stocks and have this and other bearish issues occur.
I suspect the NG story will be full in force by this February, NG storage dropping quickly towards <900 bcf, Canada suffering equally, drilling ramping up hard, etc. By this time we should be ready to enter Iraq if Saddam does not manage to avoid his destruction at our hands. |
