The 2004 Sentate races will be closely tied to the Presidential election. 34 seats are up for grabs; 19 of them are currently held by the Democrats. This analysis was written before last week's election.
216.239.51.100
Senate Contests 2004
Finally, the Republicans catch a break, with only 15 seats up to the Democrats' 19. But of course a great deal depends on which seats come open and how many seats are hotly contested. There are far more questions than answers, so let's ask the questions:
For the Republicans:
Can Jim Bunning of Kentucky, who won his first term in 1998 with just 50%, win a second term? (Bunning got a big break when his likely Democratic opponent, Governor Paul Patton, became embroiled in a seamy sex-and-retribution scandal in September 2002. Now Patton will not even run for the Democratic Senate nomination, with no obvious candidates in the wing. Still, Bunning is a weak incumbent, and Kentucky Democrats have nearly two years to sort this out.)
Will Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado run again? If not, competitive.
Can Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois even get renominated for a second term, much less win reelection in a state riven by GOP internal divisions and also trending Democratic?
Will John McCain of Arizona run again (see above)? If not, competitive.
If Frank Murkowski of Alaska is elected governor in 2002, whom will he appoint to his Senate seat, and will that individual be the favorite in 2004?
Will George Voinovich run again? Rumors are he's unhappy in D.C., and might call it a day after six years.
For the Democrats:
Will Barbara Boxer of California finally have a close race as she seeks her third term?
Will Tom Daschle of South Dakota run again (see above)? If not, competitive.
Will John Edwards of North Carolina seek a second term if he is not the Democratic presidential nominee, and if he does, can he overcome sagging ratings to win?
Will Russ Feingold of Wisconsin solidify his hold on the Senate seat for his third term?
Will Bob Graham of Florida run again? If not, competitive.
Will Fritz Hollings of South Carolina, finally the senior senator, seek another term at age 82? Whether he does or doesn't, the race will be competitive.
Will Dan Inouye of Hawaii seek reelection? If not, potentially competitive.
Will Zell Miller of Georgia seek a full term? If so, he's in like Flynn. If not, competitive.
Will Harry Reid of Nevada finally get a breather--he's never won reelection by more than 51%--or will this be another, typical Nevada squeaker?
Will Byron Dorgan of North Dakota be able to stave off a possible challenge by former Republican governor Ed Schafer?
Notice that questions are posed about ten Democratic seats, only five Republican seats. While this balance may change somewhat as time goes on, it suggests that even if the GOP fails to regain control of the Senate in 2002, it has another opportunity to do so in 2004.
For the record, here are all 34 Senate seats up in 2004:
Republicans:
Robert Bennett (UT)
Christopher Bond (MO)
Sam Brownback (KS)
Jim Bunning (KY)
Ben Nighthorse Campbell (CO)
Mike Crapo (ID)
Peter Fitzgerald (IL)
Charles Grassley (IA)
Judd Gregg (NH)
John McCain (AZ)
Frank Murkowski (AK)
Don Nickles (OK)
Richard Shelby (AL)
Arlen Specter (PA)
George Voinovich (OH)
Democrats:
Evan Bayh (IN)
Barbara Boxer (CA)
John Breaux (LA)
Thomas Daschle (SD)
Christopher Dodd (CT)
Byron Dorgan (ND)
John Edwards (NC)
Russell Feingold (WI)
Bob Graham (FL)
Ernest Hollings (SC)
Daniel Inouye (HI)
Patrick Leahy (VT)
Blanche Lincoln (AR)
Barbara Mikulski (MD)
Zell Miller (GA)
Patty Murray (WA)
Harry Reid (NV)
Charles Schumer (NY)
Ron Wyden (OR) |
