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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: fedhead who wrote (14782)	11/11/2002 12:17:39 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (3) of 57684

Be careful drawing conclusions about the rest of the RE market based on what one local market does. Other than the effects of interest rates, which are roughly the same for silly valley buyers as anywhere else in the country, RE values are a local, local, local phenomenon. As for "the general lack of fear levels," you must be looking at a different market than the rest of us. Weren't you watching as the VIX soared to 50 in July, August and October, and spent all of the summer and early fall over 30 (much of it over 40)? Didn't you see the TRIN (5 and 10-day) flash oversold buy signal after buy signal only to have them remain ignored? Hadn't you noticed all the media coverage devoted to investing in ANYTHING BUT STOCKS (or books and articles on how to make money shorting stocks)? And did you miss that any generally optimistic wall street forecaster was generally ridiculed by the talking heads and by the sampling of individual investors represented by SI and places like it? Yeah, there's been no fear. Everyone turned bearish, so what did they have to fear? Everyone expected (expects) the market to decline - would you expect them to fear being right? Bob

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