Hello carranza2, <<banks' exposure to bad loans ... a few folks in jail ... It is now behind us>>
I think banking troubles will be a lagging indicator of a bubble popping this time, as in all past times, and so the troubles you speak of are still ahead of us.
<<Japanese culture prohibits this kind of pragmatic action>>
If by 'Japanese' culture you mean 'savings' culture, then perhaps we can understand why elected officials cannot let the banks slip under the waves, carrying with it the savings of most electorates.
I believe it is still too early to speak of pragmatic actions for the current Script of Collapse, because (a) it is global synchronized, (b) the main actor is fully debt-ed, (c) its electorates are savings poor, and (d) its obligations are enormous across the planet.
I believe the pragmatic action is to raise interest rate to reflect the true risk to capital, punish the debt-ed, clear the market, and start a new play, not willy-nilly by slow death spiral, but by drama and excitement, ala Argentina.
The Latinos are very pragmatic. No money to pay? No problems, don't pay. Market clears. My wager is that Argentina stock market will out-perform NTSE in 2003 in PPP terms.
Chugs, Jay |
