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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (9109)11/12/2002 1:20:51 AM
From: Conan  Read Replies (2) of 89467
 
Jim,

I think that a war in Iraq would end quickly with one exception. I wouldn't count on the major advances taking a long time. Remember all the pundits talking about Afghanistan as a "quagmire" about 13 months ago?

We will quickly take the southern Shiite half of the country from Kuwait with minimal resistance. The northern quarter that is mainly Kurdish-controlled will also fall quickly into our hands. American forces from Jordan will quickly take the Scud launching areas of western Iraq which is a desert.

The tough part will be the metropolis surrounding Baghdad. Digging Saddam out would be tough and costly and the local populace will not cooperate. Based on the number of taxi drivers I have met who used to live in Baghdad I would say that the only people left in that area are people with low self esteem who won't dare to oppose Saddam. Expect some type of urban siege to go on for months with lots of cat and mouse games and the population slowly bleeding out of the area for food and safety. Many UN types and Europeans will be complaining about the suffering of these people while we stand by to avoid casualties. There will be some raids into this area but nothing on a large scale. Saddam will probably elude our grasp but I expect we will eventually control the whole country.

Conan

(former Special Forces detachment commander)
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