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To: Return to Sender who wrote (2660)	11/12/2002 2:08:21 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) of 13403

OT: seasonality: "exogenous shocks" will overwhelm the usual seasonality pattern in the markets. We're looking at war, with all its attendant uncertainty, and every twitch/nuance/rumor in the Iraqi news sends the markets up and down. This latest bear rally was, to a large extent, a "relief rally" on the hope that Iraq could be finessed (they'd pretend to allow inspections, and the world would pretend to believe them). That hope seems to be fading. It looks like the troops will enter Iraq, around February/March 2003, so we get uncertainty/volatility till then. Once the war starts, I'm guessing that (like in Iraq I), the markets rally hard.

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