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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: Warpfactor who wrote (17683)11/12/2002 11:26:49 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 23153
 
End of the bull market is a little easier -

Using QQQ as a proxy, since it had a lot of high fliers in it ...

bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Set for custom time period 1/4/2000 to 5/4/2000
Use Bollinger Bands
SMA average and 100
indicator MACD
(I should sign up for StockCharts.com, i guess)

Note the sharp spike down on April 4 - that was real and was a wake up call. I started looking for good short candidates then, but was not in a hurry. Next week by Tuesday it was obvious we were in a drop, and I shorted a few and stayed up till midnoght looking for other shorts.

Note that I am using 100 day moving average. 50 day moving average generates another signal from the end of January.
If you plug in a 50 day moving average, you will get a 'false' signal. However I think a few stock traded sideways from the end of January and other 'favored' stocks ran far ahead, draggin the averages up.

Considering how fast some stocks dropped, taking that early yor false signal in late January cold have been a good deal.

MACD is a well know signal but a little hard to interpet. It's a favorite of Chris Manning, who teaches technical analysis at various seminars. Chris is a pretty good technician, but an EXCELLENT teacher - so I remeber more stuff from his lectures a year later than I do 2 weeks later from other technical seminars. On a cost for retained knownledge basis, it's a pretty good deal.

I want to try to find the andvance/decline for Naz...
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