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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: dalroi who wrote (9411)	11/13/2002 12:36:55 AM
From: Vector1	Read Replies (1) of 9719

Steffan, <why MLNM> At $7.50 per share total enterprise value is $2.1B. Net cash after exercize of puts and remaining converts is about 1.1B leaving a $1.0B valuation of the company as of year end. Integrilin franchise worth at 5-6x MLNM's 50% interest in 2003 est sales of $360-375m. I put the value at $1B. Thus the Integrilin franchise alone covers the valuation. Velcade, which is in phase III and has had good results in MM has a lot of promise in MM and solid tumors. Stock could get a boost when data on the phase II is reported with more detail at ASH and word spreads. Beyond Velcade the early clinical pipeline is strong. Biggest negative is the high burn rate. When the genomics race was on MNLM achieved breaken for a couple of quarters. With the big Velcade phase III in front of the company the burn will be big next year. The company has never been shy about hiring people. That was OK when big pharma was footing the bill. With much leaner times MLNM must cut some costs. Company has always had a reputation for good science and the company has lots of valuable technology that is yet to be mined. Given the risks we are taking a small position. V1

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