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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (9778)	11/13/2002 3:12:50 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	of 13815

I think we all know thats the bear case, and it has some merit. One problem I have is wrt tech, did those other bottoms feature overcapacity like this. I don't think so. Therefore sales currently are artificially depressed by some number of orders of magnitudes. Some of these networking chip companies have gone from hundreds of millions in sales per quarter to 1/20 of prior peak. Since they aren't selling anything they look richly valued. But are today's sales figures relevant? I don't know, I'm just throwing this out. The other problem is cash. Lots of companies are trading for cash and the PEs are high on those. It inflates the ratios. Applying past valuation metrics are pretty tough to do during a bubble, and during a bubble aftermath imo. Lizzie

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