Hi all; Now that Saddam has accepted the UN resolution, I went back through the thread to see what the pundits have been saying about Iraq's willingness to accept inspections:
Bilow, September 16, 2002
Since Saddam is allowing inspections, I'd say that it's highly likely that Ritter was right, and that Iraq doesn't have any WMDs. The facts are that Iraq is letting inspectors in a long time before they had to. Past history suggests that it would have taken the UN several months to agree on the wording of a resolution and Saddam could have agreed to the ultimatum at any time until the ultimatum ran out, probably a month or two after that. If inspections were so painful for Saddam, he would have waited another couple of months. The point is that Saddam never said that inspections were painful, just that Iraq wasn't getting anything in return for them. The timing of this letter ( #reply-17998103 ) suggests that this is true. This letter suggests that what Iraq wants is not WMDs, but instead to have the sanctions and over-flights ended. In other words, Ritter was right. The great debate in the UN will not be over allowing the US to kill hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, but instead over when to end sanctions and US involvement. Regime change, as a subject at the UN, is dead, dead, dead. #reply-17998530
Hawkmoon, November 8, 2002
With a UNSC vote of 15-0, I don't believe they have any other choice [than to accept] #reply-18214295
Killer Clown From Outer-Space, November 10, 2002
So far Carl,things are going as you and I and small number of others have expected/predicted, however,I have to admit, that my crystal ball is becoming cloudy on what exactly the unpredictable Saddam will do. I figure he will accept the resolutions, but will play out the clock to the day, each step of the way. #reply-18217118
Bilow, in reply, November 11, 2002
Hi KCFOS; I would be surprised if Saddam hasn't accepted the UN resolution by the end of Tuesday. And I don't think that he is going to be "running out the clock". He wants sanctions lifted and I would guess that he'd like them lifted as soon as possible. That suggests he will behave himself. #reply-18219055
Kenneth Pollack, November 11, 2002
Well, the first thing I always point out, Wolf, is that Saddam is one of most unpredictable leaders in the world, and so you can't be certain about anything. That said, I think all of the signs that we're getting out of Baghdad indicate that the Iraqis are going to accept this resolution, they're going to allow the inspectors back in. And my guess is that they will get very good cooperation from the Iraqis but not compliance. #reply-18220125
CNN, November 12, 2002
CNN reporting that Iraq is expected to accept the UN resolution. #reply-18223703
The professionals largely hedged themselves, describing the choice that Saddam had, but not making a prediction. I'd say that's a cheap waying of making yourself look smart:
David Warren, November 12, 2002 #reply-18226795
David Rudge, November 12, 2002 #reply-18216913
The text of the Iraqi acceptance is compatible with my posts to the effect that the end of sanctions are what Iraq expects to get out of the inspection deal:
Dealing with the inspectors, the government of Iraq will also take into consideration their way of conduct, the intentions of those who are ill-intentioned among them and their improper approach in showing respect to the people's national dignity, their independence and security, and their country's security, independence and sovereignty. We are eager to see them perform their duties in accordance with the international law as soon as possible. If they do so, professionally, and lawfully, without any premeditated intentions, the liar's lies will be exposed to public opinion and the declared objective of the Security Council will be achieved. It will then become the lawful duty of the Security Council to lift the blockade and all the other unjust sanctions on Iraq.
story.news.yahoo.com
-- Carl |
