Canuck Dave,
The SOI I was referencing was the atmospheric pressure pacific between two stations which is related to El Nino, which I can check every day, similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO in the Atlantic. El Nino itself is the warming of the ocean temps in a pattern that stretches to Peru, as I am sure you know and your site explains.
Point is, without getting into all the particulars and their relationships, it's unusual to have the pressure differential go positive during an El Nino, because that is related to the La Nina, as your sites charts so aptly indicate. All of which shows this will be a moderate El Nino.
And the historic pattern of the above events is a hard winter in the East.
And all of the above is only a part of what I look at for my winter forecast. But you have to remember also, that when I made my call in September, a number of forecasters were calling for a strong El Nino. They could be right a year from now (possible, yet unlikely), but for the time being and this winter, they were wrong.
Best Regards,
Roebear |
