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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.14

+0.4%

Dec 24 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (6874)	11/14/2002 8:02:21 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) of 95632

Hi G, I think it is proof positive that AMAT's market share growth has/is significant. For what can only be called one of the most vicious troughs in this cyclical industry,backlogs at this level show market share growth in almost all sectors AND the acquisitions made in the past have also yielded long term new areas of continued revenue and reinvestment. Amat is to be congratulated in managing their business conservatively and also adding to it in the past very wisely. The record growth of backlogs is a very good complement to their vision and choice of past acquisitions. Note that the decline in billings that occurred in early 99 diverged from a stock price uptrend that never looked back. home.attbi.com To the degree that we see shorts frustrated with this news not dropping the price of our favorite stocks,we will have proof that to some degree this phenomenon of price leading the recovery is once again repeating itself. A stock's price afterall is the net result of supply and demand. If Amat's price increases in the face of moderately declining backlogs - it will be from the money spent buying it at reduced prices expecting an imminennt recovery. This repeat would be simply a cyclical recovery again and not the end of the world like in 29-32 or Japan. A conservative persons viewpoint would better bet on continued IC growth(albeit at a reduced growth rate). I suspect we'll see money flows on the fundamentally unsubstantiated side - chasing the bid side more than pressure on the ask side. It will amaze the doubtors - it is all supply and demand. JMHO Bob

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