Here's a possible scenario (apropos of nothing, and not particularly conspiracy-related):
The war has been pushed off until late January at the earliest, so oil can now lose its war premium, for the moment, peace has a (small but real) chance, and we're left with worrying about the double dip/soft spot.
The 50 bp cut is enough to keep the major indices percolating along here, along with big boy games, so we don't get another plunge this quarter and the first half of Q1 2003. We just crawl crablike from side to side, Dow in a range of 8300 to 8900, etc. The VIX never settles down below 30 but it doesn't spike up above 40, we're sort of in a high Vix Zone.
At year's end the pundits (Smarmy Lou) declare it to have been a rough year but the worst is DEFINITELY over, and everyone is looking forward to a bullish 2003.
The war comes (or doesn't come) in February 2003 and it's smart bombs and pass the popcorn time.
Beyond that, I dunno, but I don't think they can put the plunge off much farther than March 2003.
Yawn, not much else going on today,
Kb |
