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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity
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To: Steven C. Vartan who wrote (17717)11/14/2002 11:30:04 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) of 23153
 
" the current bull run is in a bear market context and should play itself out over the next week or so."

I agree on the context, but I see the bullishness lasting until maybe January or so, with some nasty drops in between -like end of year tax selling of losers.

Valuations are still way too high, but note that some companies have really cut costs (both overhead and unit) to make their numbers. Some sub-set of these companies will get better pricing with even a partial economic upturn, and their profits will zoom. I don't think there will be enough companies with improved profits to make the S&P valuation look reasonable, but there might be enought to slow the p/e multiple contraction we get next year.

By the middle of next year we will be in a pretty old bear market. I expect we will get sector rotation to new leadership (to energy, among other things) and a sideways drift on the indexes. Stock picking will really be king.
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