Analysis-of-the-Day Award:
The outlook for 2004 looks exponentially better for Republicans than the 2002 election looked (even before the returns came in). Consider:
1) Bush will get in excess of 60% of the popular vote and win in excess of 40 states. The Democrat candidate will be the "Goldwater of 2004", possibly even adopting the motto, "In your HEART, you KNOW he's [she's?] LEFT!".
2) The Republicans learned how to maximize turn out in less than two years, after getting burned by 1 to 2 million fabricated Democratic votes in 2000.
3) The new voter "reform" act passed by Congress contains mostly hutzpa about "provisional" votes and mandates for more efficient voting devices. But it also contains the very beginnings of a return to election integrity by making first-time voters prove their identity. Look for the eventual introduction of tighter requirements to prevent fraud, and a resurgence of support for reasonable literacy standards for voters in future elections.
4) Republicans have gotten wise to preventing fraud after the abortive Democratic outrages that almost stole the Executive Branch in 2000. There will be plenty of party money for poll monitors, just as you saw in 2002, and plenty of lawyers will be deployed by election day to resist local frauds in support of the Democrats, like what we saw in St. Louis in 2000. Add to this the Justice Dept.'s long overdue investigations of the worst Democrat offenses, and it's undeniable that vote fabrication is on the decline in the wake of 2000.
5) In key states, Democrats lost at the level of state legislatures, and state legislators who survived are converting to the Republican party in droves.
6) The Senate races look lucrative for Republicans in 2004, and the coming Bush Tsunami will cause a few surprising retirements by Dem senators in the next couple years. Currently most visible: John Edwards and Tom Daschle will retreat into futile campaigns for president in 2004, rather than face sure defeat in re-election attempts back home. Zell Miller is reading the writing on every wall in Georgia, and will either change parties, or make the next two years his farewell tour as a Senator. Look for a Republican Miller to win re-election by a landslide in GA in 2004. Harry Reid won in Nevada by a few hundred votes in 1998. Bush could push 70% in the state in 2004. Harry, who will be 70 soon, won't buck that tide, and will retire, leaving the Senate seat to whomever the Republicans want to nominate. That could be either new House member Jon Porter, or last-term governor Kenny Guinn. The Dems, as in many other states, ain't got nobody.
Bottom line: 2002 was a lot of fun for Republicans. But wait until you see 2004!... |
