Phil,
"....caught on the short side....."
If you are referring to my shorting of the stock I cannot do so as stated in an earlier post. Wish I could though. I hate to say b/c it may just jinx me but news....hah. You are correct that as more time passes we do get closer to news....but I guess I will play the risk and hopefully be able to buy back later.
On another note someone recently posted a link to another type of wireless transmission. In April 14, 1997's Business Week there was an article titled "A Technology Grows in Brooklyn". Being busy I filed it away. I decided to pull it out and quickly discuss it here. The article discusses LMDS or local multipoint distriubtion service. I don't think we have discussed it here. It has 2 way comunications, can provide internet access, videoconferencing, and phone service. "People think of LMDS as wireless cable delivery, as it is used in Brooklyn." The company who developed the technology and currently using it in Brooklyn is CellularVision USA Inc. Currently it carries 49 channels to 12,500 customers for a monthly rate about 30% less. Although its obviously a competitive frequency (not sure about the costs though, which are extremely important IMO as to what frequency is used for what) what is more of a concern is another mention in the article.
It notes that the FCC decided to auction off 1,000 licenses for LMDS in "about 3 months" which brings us to July. I haven't heard anything since (nor have I really been looking). It continues, "Licensees will have access to the same transmission capacity as fiber-optic cable, allowing them to deliver 200 video channels and a full slate of interactive voice and data services-and at a lower cost per subscriber than DBS." Someone states that it is the largest 2-way wireless service evr sanctioned for nationwide deployment. It mentions that it is attractive to developing nations b/c of its low cost. CellularVision has already started offerning internet service with this technology.
That is the sum of the article. What I think is more important is not that there is already competition that is quasi built out but instead the fact that the FCC continues and will probably continue to auction of licenses (which isn't bad for the consumer). This, IMHO, devalues the worth of the IVDS and decreases the probability that a)an investment firm would wish to privately fund the buildout of IVDS b)IVDS will maintain cost competitiveness in any area.
As it stands now, the utility market seems about the only viable market that IVDS may have a cost competitive advantage in (although I have not looked over the list for quite some time). Given this, I think SIIS is a better trading stock than a long term investment based on some surprise turn around and fulfillment of their business plan. The longer we wait, not only the closer to news, but also the less likely SIIS is to succeed.
Comments welcome,
Christopher Hinton |
