Instead of relying on the analysis of other bears, I read through the 10Q filing of Sears (what else? -g- ). It was a fascinating read. I estimate that they are on the brink of year marking above $800 mil as bad credit (not sure if they will write it off). That will make a big dent in their balance sheet. I see a warning coming for Q ending December.
<<During the third quarter of 2002, delinquency rates trended upwards from first and second quarter levels for both the Sears Card and Gold MasterCard portfolios. The 60-plus day delinquency rate for the Sears Card portfolio increased to 9.71% at September 28, 2002, compared to 8.73% at June 29, 2002, and 8.13% at September 30, 2001. The 60-plus day delinquency rate for the MasterCard portfolio increased to 3.00% at September 28, 2002, compared to 2.58% at June 29, 2002, and 1.94% at September 30, 2001. The Sears Card delinquency rate increase reflects the migration of higher credit quality customers to MasterCard and the softening economic environment. The increase in the MasterCard portfolio delinquency rate reflects the maturation of the portfolio as well as the softening economic environment. Because the MasterCard portfolio has a lower delinquency rate than the Sears Card, the growth in the MasterCard portfolio coupled with the decline in the Sears Card portfolio led to an improvement in the total portfolio delinquency rate as compared to the third quarter of 2001. In addition, the amount of bankruptcy filings increased in the third quarter of 2002. Bankruptcy filings, which had increased 1% during the first half of 2002 over comparable 2001 levels, increased by 20% during the third quarter. The trend of increased delinquencies and bankruptcy levels continued in October and is anticipated to continue in the fourth quarter of 2002 and lead to higher charge-offs. >>
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