Steven,
Well argued post, thanks.
Are we fighting a war on terrorism or a war on Bad People?
This is the crux of the matter. How is the war conceptualized. I dislike the 'War on Terror' because it is too abstract. It lacks the elegance of a slogan but I believe it is a "War on Middle Eastern Instability". It was OK when they were killing each other but now they are killing us. The mission of the war is to undermine the power of radical Islam and establish modern governments in the most important countries (Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria) while protecting the emerging modernism in Jordan, Qatar and Morroco. A powerful anti-modern movement in such an important region is simply not acceptable as the world's economy integrates.
In this context removing Hussein has an urgent logic. First, he is arming himself with weapons than will shift the balance of power to his favor. Time is on his side. Second, we mishandled the end of the Gulf War in a way that suggested a lack of resolve. This encourages the 'Bad People' to take more extreme action. Third, a pro-US government in Iraq improves our position against Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is the nexus of instability in the Middle East and we cannot allow the radical Islamists to gain any more power there. Fourth, challenging Saddam encourages the dissent in Iran. Fifth, removing Saddam frees Jordan to accelerate it's modernization movement.
The war against Al Qaeda is not a territorial war. We must kill the ideas behind Al Qaeda as much as the people behind it.
A better quality of life in Iran, Iraq and Jordan over the next 5 years is the single best weapon we have against the anti-modernist radicals. If we offer the people of the Middle East a place at the global table and hope that their children will have better lives, then we can combat the ideas of the radicals.
If 9/11 was Pearl Harbour then Iraq is D-Day. We cannot fight the fight until we have a beachhead. The hard work of the war will still be in front of us and most of it will not be military campaigns.
Essentially your argument is that regime change in Iraq is too risky. There is merit to that argument but in war boldness and surity of purpose are needed.
Paul |
