Network Week - Mobile Communications Analysis - Firms face long wait; Delays with interoperable hardware and wide coverage mean that...
VNU NET
November 18, 2002
Martin Courtney
Many firms are crying out for more data bandwidth than the cellular networks currently provide, leading to increased interest in faster third generation (3G) mobile data networks.
Though vendors are pushing current General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) technology, the 10kbit/s to 20kbit/s that it usually provides is not much of advance on the 9.6kbit/s offered by GSM - and many users report it is far less reliable.
The productivity of mobile staff can be severely hampered by slow data rates, as anybody who has sent email via mobile networks will confirm. Which is why 3G services are important. But though handset makers and mobile operators such as Hutchison 3G are already hyping 3G, widespread commercial 3G services are unlikely to appear this year or even in 2003.
Ben Wood of analyst firm Gartner predicts most firms will have to wait until late 2004 before they can use 3G, partly because that is when there will be low-cost dual-mode (2G/3G) handsets with the reliability to match GSM. "Most (European) 3G licences (for telecoms carriers) stipulate that you need to have at least 80 percent of the population covered by 2004.
So if you have rolled out infrastructure by that date, you will want to get people using it," he added.
Wood said that carriers will then offer incentives or even subsidies to get people onto their 3G networks - not least because they are likely to find their GSM and GPRS infrastructure congested by that point.
But Nokia's senior vice president of marketing for IP networks, Rene Svendsen-Tune, argued that the only thing holding back 3G is the issue of interoperability and the need to ensure that manufacturers' dual-mode handsets work with each other and the various European cellular networks.
"We need to test the terminals against other terminals and the networks. Handover (between 2G and 3G handsets) works but there is a lot of tuning to be done, and faults to be taken out of the software," said Svendsen-Tune, who added that there is no realistic alternative to 3G able to offer the same capacity at a competitive price.
Price will play a major part in determining the success or failure of early 3G services, but so too will the ability of network operators, handset manufacturers and software developers to provide mobile applications that users are willing to pay for.
Messaging services, especially email, are commonly used on mobile phones but text requires little bandwidth. "All the traffic over GPRS is email, but mobile browsing will become far more attractive once there are handsets with high bandwidth and colour screens," said Svendsen-Tune.
Wood said that multimedia messaging, location-based services and Java applications may attract users to 3G in future. "The next two years are critical because the apps on 2G and 2.5G will form a basis for the business case for 3G," he added.
SUMMARY
- Commercial 3G services are unlikely to be widespread before 2004.
- Customers must wait for reliable, low-cost dual-mode handsets, and wide 3G coverage.
- Multimedia and location-based services may encourage use of 3G.
==========
The first big lie of GSMGPRSEDGEEGPRSUMTSwCDMAHSDPA is the lie of evolution.
The second big lie of GSMGPRSEDGEEGPRSUMTSwCDMAHSDPA is the lie of cheap capacity and data.
All lies eventually worm their way to the surface. |
