I don't think so. The bull is running, but slowing down.
All indicators have been very toppy for some time, and I think the only thing holding us up here has been the Fed cut (which is starting to wear thin) and options expiry.
I'm betting the bull lasts not much more than 5-10 more days, and if ORCL crosses 12.50, I'd be surprised if it stayed there.
Of course, I'd like that (though I did sell some at 9.30, a bit early), but I still think the market will pull back and take us to the 8/9 dollar level before we switch gears.
I've been reviewing alot of charts, and I can see why the permabears keep calling for a 4-6000 Dow. I don't BELIEVE it is right, or necessary, but I can see what their thinking is.
Typically, the Dow doubles every 7-9 years AT THE LOW END OF THE TRENDLINE. But, just as typically, the Dow generally travels along the mid point between the top and bottom trendlines. The bottom would indicate a 4000-6000 Dow. The midline would indicate about 7400 to 8000. |
