Posted on Fri, Nov. 15, 2002
Analysts: Bush's political survival may hinge on bin Laden
BY DAVID JACKSON
The Dallas Morning News
WASHINGTON - (KRT) - His domestic political opponents may be on the run, but President Bush now faces the return of a different foe: Osama bin Laden.
The al-Qaida leader's apparent re-emergence has given critics a new opening to challenge Bush's stewardship of the war on terrorism, though previous such efforts have backfired because of the president's strong public support.
Bush and his aides have downplayed the significance of a new tape purportedly made by bin Laden, saying that whether he survives or not, his al-Qaida network has been crippled. And they have aggressively defended their conduct of the war on terrorism, offering a list of accomplishments.
"We have locked up or detained or eliminated important al-Qaida leaders," said national security adviser Condoleezza Rice. "We have eliminated their base in Afghanistan so they cannot operate in the way that they have in the past … A lot has been done."
As some Democrats started raising the cry of "Where's Osama?," U.S. officials confirmed Friday that they have arrested a high-ranking al-Qaida leader, though they would not say who or where. Officials also said President Bush will devote his Saturday morning radio address to the fight against terrorism.
The de-emphasis on bin Laden's fate reflects a long-running White House effort to de-personalize the conflict, officials said.
Once cast as a duel between the American president and a terrorist mastermind - symbolized by Bush's statement last year that he wanted bin Laden "dead or alive" - U.S. officials now stress that the struggle is not about finding "one man" but about dismantling "terrorist networks."
"This is going to be a long war," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. "This is a different kind of war and a different kind of enemy."
Still, Democrats - including some who are thinking of running against Bush in 2004 - sense an opportunity to stake out their own positions on an issue Bush has owned to this point, the conduct of the war on terrorism.
They have questioned the abilities of U.S. intelligence services and suggested that Bush's emphasis on Saddam Hussein and Iraq has distracted him from the initial goal of the war: Nailing bin Laden for the Sept. 11 attacks.
"The new tape puts a bright light on what I've said should always have been our top foreign policy objective - destroying al-Qaida," said Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., a likely presidential candidate. "It's clear we have miles to go before that mission is complete."
Kerry and other critics also question whether the Pentagon botched their best attempt to nab bin Laden, the battle of Tora Bora last year in Afghanistan, and whether the administration is doing enough to stabilize that country.
Analysts said most Americans won't consider the war close to over until bin Laden is caught or killed, an event that would quiet even the most ardent critics of Bush's strategy. Analysts also noted that while the Democrats are asking legitimate questions, they must be careful not to be seen as politicizing national security, something they have been accused of in the past.
Officials said it is possible the tape is some kind of forgery, though that is unlikely. It certainly appears to have been made within the past month, as the speaker refers to - and takes credit for - recent terrorist attacks in Bali and Moscow.
And while Bush doesn't think the war is about one man, bin Laden may have a different view; the speaker on the tape refers to Bush is the "Pharoah of the West," determined to destroy the Islamic world.
If the speaker is Laden, it would dash the hopes of officials who believe the terrorist leader was killed at Tora Bora.
President Bush has maintained uncertainty about bin Laden, saying on March 13, for example, "deep in my heart, I know the man is on the run, if he's alive at all."
On July 8, Bush said, "we haven't heard from him in a long time," but added, "I don't know if the man's living or the man's dead."
"But one thing is for certain," Bush added. "The war on terror is a lot bigger than one person."
Bush and his aides have echoed that sentiment repeatedly since he made his "dead or alive" comment in the wake of the Sept. 11 attack. The president did so again when asked this week about the new bin Laden tape.
"We're making great progress in the war on terror," Bush said. "Slowly, but surely, we are dismantling the terrorist network. We're finding their sanctuaries, we're holding people to account."
Some of his political opponents, however, have a different interpretation of bin Laden's apparent survival.
"Now, the president laid down that criteria a year ago when he said we will be judged by whether or not we find bin Laden dead or alive. Well, by that criteria, we haven't made a lot of progress," said Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D.
A string of other Democrats have also invoked bin Laden's name during congressional debates.
While criticizing some of Bush's proposals for a new Department of Homeland Security, Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., said: "Osama bin Laden is still alive and plotting more attacks while we play bureaucratic shuffleboard."
Analysts noted that Democrats have made these kinds of attacks before, only to retreat in the face of Bush's high standing with the American public.
"To the extent that Democrats are seen as playing politics, the track record suggests they are going to lose," said James Lindsay, a senior fellow in foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution, a liberal-leaning Washington think tank.
As for Bush, Lindsay said bin Laden's survival may not matter politically if the country suffers more terrorist attacks.
"Another attack raises the question of whether the national government has done enough to protect Americans," Lindsay said.
Attacks may be more likely now that fervent followers believe they have heard the voice of their leader, said Daniel Benjamin, co-author of "The Age of Sacred Terror: Radical Islam's War Against America."
"Bin Laden's re-emergence does not invalidate the progress that has been made in the war on terror," said Benjamin, a National Security Council official under President Bill Clinton. "But at the same time, bin Laden is a charismatic figure and his followers in radical Islam is certain to be mightily cheered by this."
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© 2002, The Dallas Morning News.
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