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Strategies & Market Trends : Maximum Investing

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To: Howard Bennett who wrote (60)	11/16/2002 1:24:27 PM
From: Howard Bennett	Read Replies (1) of 81

Lest you think I'm a complete bear.... I'm bearish on technology...this is true. Lots of reasons for that. Many mothball'ed fabs, declining semiconductor prices, declining demand (PC unit shipments up 1.2% this year and last.) Even the Semiconductor Industry Association has to finally admit they are going to have to live with much slower growth rates than in the past. I'm getting interested in two areas though: 1) Utilities. A weekly chart of the DJU (Dow Jones Utilities) shows that we are reaching support back to 1994. I'm hopeful that the whole energy "trading" fiasco that generated fake earnings (so-called swaps) ala Enron is over and there won't be any more surprises there <gulp>. 2) Oil and natural gas. If and when there is a global recovery the demand will pick up again oil prices will remain above $25 per barrel. $25 is apparently the Saudi govt's minimum to balance their budget. 3) Generic Drug makers. IVX and WPI are on my radar screen. The branded drug makers are currently using the legal system to <illegally IMO> to continue the patents on their branded drugs. This game will come to an end simply because of market forces...the fastest growing demographic group in the US/Canada/Europe are the baby boomers and they simply have to have generics...no more driving to Canada to get medication or choosing between meds and an xmas present for their grandkids. 4) Midcaps in general (MDY). If I was to buy anything it would be the midcaps. The whole unnfunded pension problem mostly affects large companies with many employees. Midcaps by definition should have less exposure to this growing problem. (Check out the volume on the MDY last Friday. Many times the average volume. Howard

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