what we need Mish, to know the answer one way or another is actual data. TrimTabs keeps the best eye on this but cost 2000dollars a month i gather to get their realtime data.
What we do know is the data Buffet has gathered over the years demonstrate, Pension Funds, are horrendous allocators historically.
But we also know via TrimTabs they bought equities heavily from 9/21 to the end the year 2001.Also during that time insurance company money was buying equities up powerfully.
The situation is this Mish, we need to know; one way or the other. We need escape hypothesis and just find the facts.
I will utilize my Dow-Jones search engine this week.
But anybody having data on this speak up. Why/ Because the "Big Boyz" know all this in detail right now(they know all this kind of data in realtime, and ahead of us) and we don't, and that p----- moi off:) Max p.s.However, since this rally it is apparent however something has been feeding the market, and it isn't the MFs.
I see I have got you thinking.
Yes I do not know what is feeding this rally.
A very good froend of mine suggests it does not matter.
He has done extremely well lately buying anything and everything lately that has a good chart. Lately that is about everything.
PANL had the most god awful earnings, has plenty of debt but, lost $1/share last Q and has doubled to $9.
He had that and a whole buch of other crap and is happy as a clam. I sure wish I bought this stuff. Made 100% on OPWV from $1 to $2 and thinks more is left in the rally.
There is tons of stuff like this. For christ's sake look at NXTL. 2.5 to $14! WTF?
Based on debt I would suggest NXTL should be GTZ or close to it.
Does it matter why?
People are buying ANYTHING on the Naz.
Now, back to my hypothesis.
I never said when it would start.
I do suggest that pension $ might try this ploy 1 more time. They can not afford to be wrong repeatedly. I showed one fund that fired a manager and I bet the next manager is more risk adverse (which might mean less willingness to keep feeding losing equities). One is hardly a trend, and who knows this next clown might decide to go with "safe" stocks like CSCO or god knows what else. But I suspect we will start seeing a trend away from equities. When it happens all the lemmings will follow suit and perhaps that will give us the bottom (when pension funds give up).
The naz appears to me to be much stronger than the spoos. Is this becuse Naz companies do not have huge poension liabilities. Banks also have a ton of bad loans to nrazil etc.
Who knows as fundamentally this is the stupidest rally we have seen yet. All around. How long does it take the pension idiots to re-allocate? Will there be one more infusion of cash in January or are we having the Jan affect right now. Last year there was not much difference between the Nov-Dec High and the Jan high.
Shorting at the Nov top, Jan top, or March top on the SPX produced the same result, if one did that and just walked away. I will do a post on that here that I did on ewave board on that.
So pension fund reallocation stopped fueling the mess last Nov. Now we have MUFU fund outflows as well. So that bring us back to the question. (or perhaps you think this could be a new Bull market).
M |
