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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands

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To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (13332)11/16/2002 11:06:18 PM
From: lurqer  Read Replies (1) of 57110
 
Well, I usually just lurk, but since you posted me, I'll play devil's advocate. Your first chart seems based on the premise that the current situation is like the May-June '01 period. Why pick that period over any of a bunch of other local maxima in the big down channel from '00? The maxima at Sept '00, Feb '01, Jan '02 and Mar '02 didn't reach RSI 70 on your chart or the red MACD line you exhibited. So why pick that May-June period? As far as the comparison with the '31 chart - maybe. But I'm sure one can find plenty of historical charts with short term double bottoms that don't lead to a second mini-spike tops.

All that said though, I believe there is a case to be made that although the secular bear is not over, we made need to shake off some more shorts before a large descent can begin.

All JMO.

lurqer
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