It basically comes down to this: When the weekly turns down, we'll know it's over with.
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The first weekly stoch to turn down has normally foretold the end of the rally.
Notice the 5-wave structure on the fast stochs off the April and fall 2001 rallies. Notice that missing here. This is a 3-wave move up, with the 2nd wave a long flat still in progress. When the final move up comes, it should be short, but quick.
That tends to support the theory of a drop into the turn on the 20th, and a rise into the turn on the 25th. |
