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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 685.69

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Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (38414)	11/17/2002 4:21:09 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) of 68773

Excerpts from AMAT CC Notes (Comments by Harry): Message 18235734 >>- despite increasing DRAM prices and decline in >>inventories, it continues to wait for an inflection point Interesting, that means PC demand has at least flattened. That is better than I thought. >>- Customer reduce wafers starts in the quarter. Suggested that they expect a weak December Q. >>- 1.08 B2B At least they are a steady state level. >>Cash increase by 77M to 4.93B Cash flow positive before charges. >> Orders increase for 300mm pilot lines At least fabs are still investing in new gen tech. >>- DSO 66 days Not bad considering the amount of international business. >> 55M in stock repurchase at 15.32 avg price. Management any good at calling a bottom???? >>- The economic environment was weker than expected. Our >>>customers reacted by cutting orders. Again a weak to down Dec q. >>- Cap utiliation dropped to 69% to 74% from last quarter. >>With new capacity utilization coming onboard and >>prospects for weaker orders, utlization could drop to >>55%. Wow, orders still dropping. Look at the amount of excess capacity too. Anyone know where the bottom in utilization was during the last extended down turn in semi equip???? >> The wireless handset was stable and tracking with modest >>growth. Tracking what RFMD, NOK and QCOM said. Is it seasonal though. I would expect it all depends on consumer demand this Christmas. I can not say getting a new phone is high on my list. The market is 17 to 30 years olds though. My broker said his son is cutting back and not doing many fancy things. Cell phone games getting some interest. >> Low visible for electronic sector for 6-9 months. We >>expect orders to be weak. Orders for next quarter will be >>20% less than this quarter. We will be profitable, but >>expect a loss due to restructing charge. So much for ESST and personal electronics. >>Certainly Korea will be weaker since had large order >>recently. Ramping for something???? >>Merryl - Flat panel continue growth? >>A- business is at steady state and alot of capacity in >>sector. rate of order is going to slow a bit. This >>buusiness is profitable for us and continues to be. Not a positive for PHTN. GLW late to the game, given that they are adding capacity now. No new light on GNSS and FP monitor demand except that glass shortage is about to end. Already know this from GNSS call. >> DRAM was responsible of 2/3 orders over 100M. Close to >>half of the 750M was from 2 customers. No surprises here except that they has been very little proportional sector shift. >>Web Brush Morgan - Taiwan foundries volatility? >>a - It depends in technolgy. Very little in place for >>certain technology. If the ramp up in Nvida chips was a >>surge, there is not enough capacity to handle the demand >>vs. older pc chips. Explains the recent spike on NVDA stock. Sustainable?????

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