you are going to be the only one trading according to your slop.
You say that like it is a bad thing. Personally, I don't mind being the only one with my views on the market. It was the fact that I allowed slop in my analysis last March that kept me bearish while all the best and brightest were professing the new bull.
If you don't allow slop in your TA, I don't see how you can't be looking for big upside. There is no question that we have broken up from that big descending triangle (charts posted earlier). That should be the end of the bear for you.
Unless I'm mistaken, we were already at COMP 1695 or so prior to Sept. 11. After the market opened back up, we took 5-days to drop to the eventual low. How can you say the low was as a result of Sept. 11? If it was, we'd have hit it on Sept. 17, not 5-days later.
I am absolutely convinced that we would have made the Sept01 lows eventually, but the fact that the date was shifted by the event *changes* the slope of trendlines. I believe that the market has a natural timeframe for the correction. If an exogenous event drove the market down to the final bottom level 2 years before the cycle was meant to complete, I believe that this would not be the end of the bear market. I believe that the market would likely overcompensate on the upside (which I believe happened) and that the bear would still end at the natural time and level.....unless of course there are other outside influence that prolong it (thank you Alan Greenspan).
I believe that 9/11 screwed up the time component, if not also the price component of the cycles. I do not believe that I can know how much the time and/or price components were skewed. But, I do believe that the cycles have a tendency to correct themselves. I look at the response to 9/11 as similar to a car going into a skid on ice and then the driver overcorrecting on the steering. The drivers in the market overcorrected to the downside, then overcorrected to the upside. Because I believe this, I tend to trust other high and low points on the chart more than the first two responses to an exogenous event. |
