two tough questions, but confident in the answers
I believe Prechter is in error
he ignores two historical facts about 1929-1932
gold rose over 60%
the leading gold miner Homestake rose 700%
maybe you should ask Prechter to explain those two !!
he regards gold as a commodity
sure, maybe silver and crude oil will decline in price
but gold is a financial commodity, not an industrial metal
it may appear in certain catalytic products
but I ask you: what does gold compete with?
the answer is other currencies!!!
if the dollar and euro and yen are all being seriously debased while stimulus fights off deflationary momentum, then the pressure valve meter will be gold's price
I think Prechter is straining his Elliott Waves theory
I respect him very much
but when I studied EW theory back in 1995, I found its most serious drawback was in marking the milestones in CORRECTIONS
it sucks in reversals
it thrives in breakouts
gold is correcting, not breaking out
wait until gold breaks out above #330, and EW will dictate
esp since new breakout levels will be freshly made, as 6-10 year old levels will not mean so much in determining new resistance and support levels
I expect to see Prechter lose some face in the next two years
I agree with RichRussell
he focuses on the creaky fundamentals of debt issuance
and unfortunately, all major currencies qualify as debt issuances
for USA Inc, European Union Inc, Japan Inc
and those stocks stink on ice right now
the second is the easier
sure, expanded money supply is in debt creation
colossal mortgage debt and car loan debt is to vanish
but the MZM is rising fast
debt default is not the only way for debt to vanish
it can be retired, as Mastercard owners pay off balances
dont worry
the USGovt is responsible for many many tasks
they are absolutely terrible at most of them
including protecting the value of the dollar currency
expect the USGovt to print money like noman's business
they will soon monetize the federal debt
they will soon monetize the war effort
they will soon monetize "helicopter drops" to every US household
the USGovt is a world class inflation expert
give them time
they will keep the presses running overtime
there are several more techniques that the Fed is prepared to unleash in coming months
watchwords for 2003: JOBS, MONETIZING
/ jim |
