There were a couple of dynamics behind this. First was the fact that the Toronto voter was so frightened by the prospect of separation that they favoured whatever leader seemed likely to be the most palatable to Quebec. Naturally the rule of thumb there is that people from Quebec would prefer to vote for a francophone, so Toronto would only support francophones. The other is that by and large Quebec does prefer to vote for one of their own. Hence Mulroney shellacked Turner, twice -- the only time the Liberals ever put up a rank anglo against someone from Quebec.
All generalizations break down, and this is no exception. I met a great many Quebecers who detest Chretien. Naturally the nationalists hate him, but I knew lots of strong federalists who hated him pathologically too. IMHO the Bloc would have died long ago if there were a more acceptable francophone to vote for. This, in fact, will be Paul Martin's role -- to finish off the Bloc. I know, I know, Martin is from Windsor. In the next election, he will nevertheless serve as the closest thing to a francophone, and he and Super Mario will work very well together.
Copps, Rock and Manley are all Ontario anglos. Copps has nil credibility outside of her Dad's old fiefdom of Hamilton. Rock plays well to the Toronto Star crowd, and in the event of Martin's self-destruction would get solid support from the left wing of the Liberal Party. Manley has yet to prove himself, and anyway why support him when Martin is there?
It is very difficult to paint a scenario where the Liberals do not win the next election. With separatism on the back burner for now, and a seeming willingness among the masses in Quebec to wrench their gaze from their navels to the wreckage of their economy, probably 20 Bloc seats will be up for grabs. They ain't going to the NDP, they ain't going to the Alliance, and no more than two would go to the Tories. The Liberals will pick them up, offsetting any losses they sustain in Ontario. |
