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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis
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To: bobby beara who wrote (40935)11/18/2002 1:29:48 PM
From: Terry Whitman  Read Replies (4) of 52237
 
The Dow is up 6 weeks in a row now..
and the silence here is deafening. <g>

I did some work this morning on a Long Term valuation based study. The results are in:

Based on SPX valuation data over the period 1994-2002:
1) The bottom is in. We have met the minimum reversal #s.
2) We had a LT buy signal on 10/18.
3) Past buy signals have returned 24% (avg. buy to sell signal), and 51% trough to peak.
4) Past bullish cycles lasted 18 months on avg. So 17 more months to go on avg.
5) Past returns at 4 wks past buy signal were 4%. Current return fm 10/18 is 4.6%.
6) Past valuation cycles suggest a minimum increase of 50% in valuation from here to cycle peak.

But- this is all based on a rather small set of data, so take it FWIW.
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