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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: mishedlo who wrote (59872)	11/18/2002 8:12:54 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) of 209892

Yup, today was overt distribution from the git-go. They didn't even try to hide it, Dell and the BKX are evidence of that. Although I have been talking about another wave up after the next pullback, I see enough evidence that the Nov 6 top was an some kind of 'IT' top. I believe I commented at that time that I thought as much (or was that Nov 4?) but I believed tech could make another high (the NDX did, but not the SOX or COMPQ). That DOW H&S looks very real to me and I see no reason to doubt it yet. Financials are leading the down and C is leading the financials. I think its cooked as you know. The only DOW stocks which look like they could do some upside damage are the defensives and that can't be good The tech double tops are picture perfect from a volume standpoint as well and I am satisfied that there has been enough structure there for it to qualify for a complete correction. If that CSCO ending diagonal is real, you can forget about going long for some time because we will reverse its large breakout toute de suite. MSFT is leading the double top parade and it sure looks like 5 waves off the October lows which completes the large bearish flat going back to the July lows. Smelly is the one index where I could see another wave up but who's to say it won't come from much lower levels. I sense everyone has piled in there for now. Sentiment is extremely bullish, I have a 10day EMA of the equity P/C sitting at .53 which is close enough to my .50 threshold which has marked every top we have had. One last thing is the plethora of +1000 Tick we have seen on the NYSE (no, I have not forgotten about those puppies). I am cautious and may sell my poots when we approach strong support levels but unless I see something change here, I am (as Zeev likes to say) putting on my bear suit. Edit-Oh yeah, and Luc is bullish.

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